Were The Bookies Right?

At the start of the season we looked at the bookmakers odds for the two strikers that were pre-season heavy favorites to score the most goals: Drogba and Rooney. To recap, this is who the bookmakers had as favorite to score the most goals in the 2007 / 2008 season:

Bet365: Drogba $5.5, Rooney $11
Tote Sport: Drogba $6, Rooney $11
Paddy Power: Drogba $5.5, Rooney $12
Coral: Drogba 5, Rooney $8
Ladbrokes: Drogba $5.5, Rooney $11

Drogba was about 2:1 favorite to score more goals than Rooney. Ultimately Rooney proved the bookies wrong - he scored 12 goals while Drogba got 8. But obviously you make changes to your fantasy team as the season progresses, and we were using the bookies information as a guide to who would have the best start to the season.

In the first six weeks, Rooney played 45 minutes before injuring himself, earning 1 point over those 6 weeks. Drogba also had a 1 point first week, but made up for it with an 11 point week in Gameweek 2. By the time the fourth week came around, the teams had all had a shakedown and there was a lot more information available to Fantasy managers regarding wise striker transfer decisions.

If we used the bookmakers odds to choose between Rooney and Drogba at the start of the season, it would have led to the correct decision for the opening rounds. We'll be looking at the bookies odds at the start of the 08/09 season as well; join us then.