Is It Ronaldo Time?

Ronaldo is back, and priced higher than ever. There is no doubt that he is a phenomenon in FF terms. But is he worth the £14.2 (and climbing!) pricetag?

Lets see what else £14.2 could buy you:

Liverpool defender Arbeloa (£6.0m) AND
Everton midfielder Arteta (£8.0m)

Liverpool look like they are mounting a serious Premiership challenge this season, and are keeping several clean sheets along the way. Arbeloa has played almost every minute this season which means guarenteed Clean Sheet points - however he does have 4 yellow cards. Between now and Jan 31st, the 'Pool face only 3 Top 4 games: Chelsea twice and Arsenal just before Christmas. Favourable times ahead.

A lot of people predicted big things for Arteta this season, and he hasn't disappointed so far. Two goals, 4 assists, 8 bonus points and a maximum compliment of minutes played points to a regular points-accruer. Everton face the tough line-up of Arsenal and Man Utd as their next two games, but then have fairly easy sailing until 22nd Dec.

Villa striker Carew (£7.7m) AND
Chelsea defender Bosingwa (£6.5m)

Carew has scored in 4 of the 7 games played this season, chalked up a couple of assists, and also made away with 7 bonus points. Villa's fixtures list through till Christmas isn't perfect, but whether they keep a clean sheet or not is of little concern to the in-form Villa striker's points tally.

Chelsea, like Liverpool, are shaping up to be contenders for Most Clean Sheets this season. And since Bosingwa is playing practically every minute for Chelsea, he earns lots of juicy Clean Sheet points. He has also potted a goal, and its likely he will pull in some assists over the course of the season as well.

But will these two combinations add up to more points than Ronaldo's total? He has started with a bang, but I do not believe he will repeat last season's heroics of 280+ points; it was such a freakishly outrageous performance I do not think anyone can do it two seasons back-to-back.

There is definately an element of "Keeping Up With The Joneses" in FF, and if loads of other players have Ronaldo and he DOES start to look like he might repeat his mammoth points tally, then it will become important to have him in the squad. But by then his price will have risen even more...

It is early days yet, but Man Utd have a good fixture list between now and Christmas. However, that £14.2m will buy a lot of other quality players. It is a tricky decision.

What do you think - buy Ronaldo early, late, or not at all? Let us know your thoughts on the issue in the comments below.

ps: Apologies for the lack of recent posts; I've been in Australia visiting me Nephews. Normal service is now resumed!

Zaki, Zaki, Cheap and Good

Amr Zaki is the breakaway leader in the early stages of the FF season for Top Striker. And at only £6.2m he represents good value indeed; he is playing every minute, has 3 goals and 1 assist to his name, and perhaps more importantly is proving to be a bonus point magnet. He has earned a bonus point every week for the first three weeks, and enviable achievement that is unmatched by any other player.

Wigan also have a favourable run of fixtures ahead. Between now and December they only face one of the Big Four teams - Liverpool away on 18th Oct. The rest of the fixtures include middle-ground teams like Villa, Middlesborough and Portsmouth. Zaki's next three games are Sunderland (home), Tottenham (away), Man City (home).

Zaki's bargain price has him head and shoulders above other strikers on Value (Form), a measure of points as a ratio of player cost. Given his current form - and Wigans fixture list - it is very likely that Zaki will tuck another goal or two away in the coming weeks. And even if he doesn't get any himself, he may very well set someone else up for an assist, or draw himself a bonus point or two that the Press Association analysts seem to love giving him.

Zaki's price is set to keep rising, so picking him up at this early stage and holding him for the next 4 or 5 weeks should see a decent return on investment. It should also continue to return decent points. Definately recommended as a second striker.

Wildcard Theories

In the sport of Premier League.com fantasy football, the Wildcard is the one-use golden ticket allowing unlimited transfers. Although it can be played any time, it is always enticing to make several transfers after the first gameweek. Seeing other players scoring 5, 6 or 7 points for the same price as players in your squad who scored 1 or 2 points makes it tempting to commit to wholesale changes very early on.

There are a few schools of thought when it comes to Wildcard theory:

* Play your card very early, jump on every bargain player from gameweeks 2 - 4, hope they increase in value quickly, and take the money and run.

* Play it during the first long International Week, Aug 30th - Sept 13th (after GW3). By then it will be clear who is in form and who is first choice. It also provides good scope to make the necessary tinkering that may be required to bring Ronaldo back into the squad if he is nearing a return.

* Tailor a new team to monopolise double gameweeks and max out the players playing 180 mins that week. A variation on this: in the weeks prior to an appealing double GW, use double transfers to gradually recruit players who will be playing in the GWx2. Then AFTER the GWx2, you can sort your squad out using the wild card.

* Hold on till the final run when there are often double, even triple gameweeks. One for the cagey conservative here.

To establish when the best time to use a wildcard, I reviewed the overall first 11 fantasy teams from the 07/08 season. Lets see how last year's winners did it - the data for the week of their wildcard use is formatted as Week Of Transfer (# of Transfers made):

3(8) 38(14) 14(8) 30(5) 28(2) 30(5) 26(4) 6(7) 8(15) 28(3) 28(3)

average: 21.7 (6.7)

This works out with an average of around GW 21-22 and a spread of more or less the whole season. With an average number of transfers per Wildcard of nearly 7, the top managers looked to make large changes to their squads.

Conclusion: the Top 11 managers from last season used their Wildcards more or less evenly across the whole season. Personal preference seems to be the best guide - although it would pay to wait at least two weeks to get a feel for consistent performances rather than one-shot flashes. That aside, any time is a good time for a wildcard!

When do you think you will be using your Wildcard? Give us your views in the Comments below.